Somalia and the UAE: A Shifting Dynamic in Regional Alliances

As Somalia’s political landscape evolves, a pivotal shift in its relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has brought longstanding tensions to the forefront. The recent announcement from Somalia’s federal cabinet voiding all agreements with the UAE marks a significant turning point in the country’s foreign relations. The implications of this decision reach far beyond diplomatic rhetoric, touching upon sovereignty, regional security, and economic partnerships.

The Void of Agreements

On January 13, 2026, Somalia’s federal cabinet declared that it had annulled existing agreements with the UAE, encompassing vital areas such as defense cooperation, port management, and security assistance. This decision arose from concerns about repeated infringements on Somalia’s sovereignty. Officials in Mogadishu specifically pointed to direct deals the UAE had forged with regional administrations, often bypassing the federal government, which is responsible for foreign relations under Somalia’s provisional constitution.

The Ban on UAE Flights

This announcement coincided with reports of the UAE beginning to withdraw its military assets from Somalia. Shortly before the voiding of agreements, Mogadishu had imposed a ban on Emirati military and cargo flights over Somali airspace. The federal government expressed alarm over the potential misuse of strategic airfields and the expansion of foreign security activities beyond its control. This ban highlighted the growing tensions over national sovereignty and defense integrity.

Reasserting National Authority

Cabinet officials presented the annulments as a means of reaffirming Mogadishu’s authority over international partnerships and critical infrastructure. However, they also recognized the potential challenges in enforcing this decision, particularly in regions where Emirati-supported initiatives are already in operation. The difficulty of translating policy into practice in areas like Somaliland and Puntland underscores the complexities of Somalia’s federal system.

Somaliland’s Diplomatic Maneuvering

The backdrop to the UAE-Somalia dispute is increasingly influenced by Somaliland’s evolving relationships with Middle Eastern nations. Recently, Israel’s foreign minister visited Hargeisa, coinciding with Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence claims—a diplomatic development that has drawn ire from the federal government in Mogadishu. The federal authorities vehemently opposed this move, framing it as a violation of Somalia’s territorial integrity.

In contrast, officials in Hargeisa celebrated this recognition as a potential opportunity for enhanced security and economic growth. They dismissed fears from Mogadishu regarding military bases or refugee relocations, reflecting the complex interplay of local aspirations and international politics.

Foreign Investments and Strategic Ports

The UAE has been a crucial partner for Somaliland, playing a significant role in its economic development through investments, notably in the strategic Berbera port managed by global operator DP World. Berbera’s location along key shipping routes between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean has amplified its importance in regional trade. The federal government’s repeated objections to these Emirati-backed projects highlight the ongoing struggle between central authority and regional autonomy.

The Role of Regional Authorities

The disputes over foreign investment and security are not confined to Somaliland alone. Similar tensions have arisen in Puntland and Jubaland, where the UAE has engaged in port development and maritime security initiatives. The federal government’s calls for all international agreements to funnel through Mogadishu resonate with its desire to maintain centralized control over foreign engagements. Yet, regional authorities insist that immediate security pressures and pressing economic needs necessitate their direct dealings with foreign partners.

Power Dynamics within Somalia

Analysts indicate that the cabinet’s decision to void agreements with the UAE reflects broader struggles over power, resources, and external engagements within Somalia’s federal framework. As federal leaders strive for unified control over international agreements, regional authorities continue to assert their right to navigate foreign relations based on local needs—creating a dynamic that could further strain inter-governmental relations.

In a region already characterized by shifting alliances and geopolitical challenges, the annulment of UAE agreements exemplifies the delicate balancing act Somalia faces as it strives for stability, investment, and international support amid ongoing internal and external pressures. Each development in this intricate web of diplomacy has the potential to reshape the future of Somalia and its place within the Horn of Africa.